The 2025 awards season is heating up, and now that the Golden Globes are over, everyone’s eyes are turning to the Academy Awards. The Oscars nominees were originally going to be announced on Friday, January 17, but due to the ongoing devastating wildfires in Los Angeles, the announcement has been bumped by a few days to Sunday, January 19. The same goes for the awards show itself – currently scheduled for Sunday, March 2, that date, of course, has the potential to change depending on the rapidly changing situation in L.A.

Even though nominations haven’t been formally announced, we have a good idea of the movies and people who will be contending. The biggest categories – writing, directing, acting, and Best Picture – are hard to predict, but we’re taking a stab at it. Here are our choices for the biggest prizes of the night, along with who will probably win.

Best Supporting Actress – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez

Who Will Probably Win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez

There are plenty of potential strong contenders for the Best Supporting Actress category at this year’s Oscars, such as Ariana Grande and her turn as Galina in Wicked. Still, after her Golden Globe win, we’re guessing it will be Zoe Saldaña taking the win at the Academy Awards. Emilia Pérez has caused a lot of division among critics and audiences alike for various reasons, but Saldaña’s turn as lawyer Rita Mora Castro is not one of them. Long constrained to doing big-budget, CGI-heavy franchise films, it’s nice to see the talented Saldaña finally getting recognized for her pure dramatic chops. That could and should be capped off by taking home the Oscar.

Best Supporting Actor – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Who Will Probably Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Kieran Culkin really flashed his serious dramedy bona fides in Succession, winning the Best Lead Actor Emmy in 2023. That success has continued with him picking up the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor a few weeks ago for his performance in A Real Pain. Culkin has been a unique talent for years, and it feels like Hollywood is finally picking up on the quirky intensity and depth he brings to his roles. Right now, he’s both who we’d pick to win the Best Supporting Actor Oscar, and who we probably think will win after his most recent tour de force performance.

Best Actress – Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Who Will Probably Win: Demi Moore, The Substance

If we had our choice, it would be Cynthia Erivo taking home the golden trophy for her work as Elphaba in Wicked. Erivo is the beating heart of the juggernaut movie musical, her soulful, vulnerable performance anchoring the story as she emotes through her powerful voice and her huge doe eyes. It’s a star-making performance, as captivating as any on screen this year.

That said, it will probably be Demi Moore taking home the trophy for her role in The Substance. The fact she took home the Best Actress Golden Globe last week immediately makes her the frontrunner. That’s not to say she’s not deserving – her performance is phenomenal, even if the movie itself is so-so. Still, despite her brilliant turn, it may be a matter of the Academy giving it to Moore as a sort of lifetime achievement award, whereas the younger Erivo has plenty of other chances in the future.

Best Actor – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Who Will Probably Win: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

If it were a just world, Adrien Brody would take home the Best Actor Oscar this year in a landslide. The Brutalist is moving, a sweeping, epic journey and character study in one. Brody’s performance as visionary immigrant architect László Toth is mesmerizingly good – but then, has Brody ever turned in a poor performance? Not really. Still, it’s likely that ingenue Timothée Chalamet will win for his role as Bob Dylan in the musical biopic A Complete Unknown. His performance, in our opinion, doesn’t hold a candle to Brody, but the Academy sure loves the imitations in musical biopics. And, with Brody having already won an Oscar in his lifetime, it seems Chalamet is poised to win his first after so much success in his young career.

Best Original Screenplay – Sean Baker, Anora

Who Will Probably Win: Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist

Sean Baker’s Anora was a strong contender after its release to pick up various awards throughout awards season, but as other movies have been released generated more buzz, Anora‘s chances seem to have lost a fair bit of steam. Still, it was a well-lauded movie and it seems unlikely the Academy will send it home completely empty-handed on Oscars night. It’s a long, long shot for winning any of the other categories on this list, which leaves Best Original Screenplay. Everything is sort of feeling like The Brutalist‘s year to lose, but if any movie were to steal one of the major categories, it would be Anora in this one.

Best Adapted Screenplay – Peter Straughan, Conclave

Who Will Probably Win: Peter Straughan, Conclave

In many ways, Conclave is in the same boat as Anora. It’s well-crafted, with great directing and acting, the kind of movie that could be a strong contender for most categories in any year. That, unfortunately, is likely working against it this year – it does everything very well, but not well enough to make it a standout. That said, Conclave does deserve accolades, and the strongest case it makes for that is in the Best Adapted Screenplay category. Writer Peter Straughan did a fantastic job adapting Robert Harris’ 2016 novel, and we’re guessing he’ll take home a golden statue for his efforts this year.

Best Director – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Who Will Probably Win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

The Best Director category is one of the few this year where most of the predictors and trades agree on the likely winner. A month ago, Jon Chu was a strong contender for his work on Wicked – and he still arguably is – but right now, the category is Brady Corbet’s to lose. He won the Best Director Golden Globe, which is always a pretty solid indicator of who the frontrunner is. Corbet is deserving of the win, too. He spent seven years bringing this movie to life and his press tour has endeared him to journalists around the world. As The Brutalist continues to pick up steam during awards season and with audiences, it’s hard to think Corbet won’t be rewarded for his efforts.

Best Picture – Wicked

What Will Probably Win: The Brutalist

Our heart wants Wicked to win, but our head says it will probably be The Brutalist. Wicked is an astonishing achievement, arguably the best musical movie adaptation…ever. The production design and costuming alone are worth the price of admission, but every single bit of it is so well-crafted and full of joy and passion. It’s huge and epic and wonderful. Still, The Brutalist is a worthy contender, and right now, it feels like it has all the momentum and buzz on its side. Winning the Oscars is sometimes as much about timing and momentum as it is about worth, and that’s not to say The Brutalist wouldn’t be a worthy Best Picture winner – it would. Still, it’s undeniable that right now, it’s the clear frontrunner to take home the night’s biggest prize.

Get tickets to all these movies and more